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Title The Improbability Principle
Author David J. Hand
Publisher Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Release Date 2014-02-11
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 288
ISBN 9780374711399
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough. Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.

Title The Improbability Principle
Author David J. Hand
Publisher Macmillan
Release Date 2014-02-11
Category Business & Economics
Total Pages 269
ISBN 9780374175344
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

A well-known statistician presents his theory that extraordinary and rare events are actually commonplace and cites stories of two-time lottery winners and other bizarre coincidences to support his theory that unlikely events statistically must happen. 50,000 first printing.

Title The Improbability Principle
Author David Hand
Publisher Random House
Release Date 2014-02-27
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 320
ISBN 9781448170661
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? Here, in this highly original book - aimed squarely at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling - eminent statistician David Hand answers this question by weaving together various strands of probability into a unified explanation, which he calls the improbability principle. This is a book that will appeal not only to those who love stories about startling coincidences and extraordinarily rare events, but also to those who are interested in how a single bold idea links areas as diverse as gambling, the weather, airline disasters and creative writing as well as the origin of life and even the universe. The Improbability Principle will change your perspective on how the world works – and tell you what the Bible code and Shakespeare have in common, how to win the lottery, why Apple's song shuffling was made less random to seem more random. Oh and why lightning does in fact strike twice...

Dark Data by David J. Hand

Title Dark Data
Author David J. Hand
Publisher Princeton University Press
Release Date 2020-02-18
Category Computers
Total Pages 344
ISBN 9780691182377
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

"Data describe and represent the world. However, no matter how big they may be, data sets don't - indeed cannot - capture everything. Data are measurements - and, as such, they represent only what has been measured. They don't necessarily capture all the information that is relevant to the questions we may want to ask. If we do not take into account what may be missing/unknown in the data we have, we may find ourselves unwittingly asking questions that our data cannot actually address, come to mistaken conclusions, and make disastrous decisions. In this book, David Hand looks at the ubiquitous phenomenon of "missing data." He calls this "dark data" (making a comparison to "dark matter" - i.e., matter in the universe that we know is there, but which is invisible to direct measurement). He reveals how we can detect when data is missing, the types of settings in which missing data are likely to be found, and what to do about it. It can arise for many reasons, which themselves may not be obvious - for example, asymmetric information in wars; time delays in financial trading; dropouts in clinical trials; deliberate selection to enhance apparent performance in hospitals, policing, and schools; etc. What becomes clear is that measuring and collecting more and more data (big data) will not necessarily lead us to better understanding or to better decisions. We need to be vigilant to what is missing or unknown in our data, so that we can try to control for it. How do we do that? We can be alert to the causes of dark data, design better data-collection strategies that sidestep some of these causes - and, we can ask better questions of our data, which will lead us to deeper insights and better decisions"--

Title The Improbability Principle by David J Hand Summary
Author QuickRead
Publisher QuickRead.com
Release Date 2021
Category Study Aids
Total Pages 86
ISBN 9203456XXXX
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The science behind miracles. Have you ever encountered something so striking that it made you say, “That’s a miracle!” Or perhaps you’ve experienced a phenomenon that makes you feel as though it’s too extraordinary to ever happen by chance. But the research of professor and statistician David J. Hand indicates that what we consider miraculous is actually both ordinary and easily predicted according to something called the improbability principle. This book unpacks the science and statistics behind seemingly miraculous phenomena.

Title Statistics A Very Short Introduction
Author David J. Hand
Publisher OUP Oxford
Release Date 2008-10-23
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 136
ISBN 9780191578922
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Modern statistics is very different from the dry and dusty discipline of the popular imagination. In its place is an exciting subject which uses deep theory and powerful software tools to shed light and enable understanding. And it sheds this light on all aspects of our lives, enabling astronomers to explore the origins of the universe, archaeologists to investigate ancient civilisations, governments to understand how to benefit and improve society, and businesses to learn how best to provide goods and services. Aimed at readers with no prior mathematical knowledge, this Very Short Introduction explores and explains how statistics work, and how we can decipher them. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

The Art Of Statistics by David Spiegelhalter

Title The Art of Statistics
Author David Spiegelhalter
Publisher Penguin UK
Release Date 2019-03-28
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 256
ISBN 9780241258750
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

'This marvellous book will transform your relationship with the numbers that swirl all around us' TIM HARFORD, author of The Undercover Economist Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. How many trees are there on the planet? Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? Why do old men have big ears? Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' NATURE 'There is something in here for everyone ... A call to arms for greater societal data literacy' FINANCIAL TIMES

Fluke by Joseph Mazur

Title Fluke
Author Joseph Mazur
Publisher Basic Books
Release Date 2016-03-29
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 288
ISBN 9780465040001
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

A mathematical guide to understanding why life can seem to be one big coincidence-and why the odds of just about everything are better than we would think. What are the chances? This is the question we ask ourselves when we encounter the strangest and most seemingly impossible coincidences, like the woman who won the lottery four times or the fact that Lincoln's dreams foreshadowed his own assassination. But, when we look at coincidences mathematically, the odds are a lot better than any of us would have thought. In Fluke, mathematician Joseph Mazur takes a second look at the seemingly improbable, sharing with us an entertaining guide to the most surprising moments in our lives. He takes us on a tour of the mathematical concepts of probability, such as the law of large numbers and the birthday paradox, and combines these concepts with lively anecdotes of flukes from around the world. How do you explain finding your college copy of Moby Dick in a used bookstore on the Seine on your first visit to Paris? How can a jury be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that DNA found at the scene of a heinous crime did not get there by some fluke? Should we be surprised if strangers named Maria and Francisco, seeking each other in a hotel lobby, accidentally meet the wrong Francisco and the wrong Maria, another pair of strangers also looking for each other? As Mazur reveals, if there is any likelihood that something could happen, no matter how small, it is bound to happen to someone at some time. In Fluke, Mazur offers us proof of the inevitability of the sublime and the unexpected. He has written a book that will appeal to anyone who has ever wondered how all of the tiny decisions that happen in our lives add up to improbable wholes. A must-read for math enthusiasts and storytellers alike, Fluke helps us to understand the true nature of chance.

Enhancing Human Performance by National Research Council

Title Enhancing Human Performance
Author National Research Council
Publisher National Academies Press
Release Date 1988-01-01
Category Business & Economics
Total Pages 312
ISBN 9780309037921
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

In its evaluation, Enhancing Human Performance reviews the relevant materials, describes each technique, makes recommendations in some cases for further scientific research and investigation, and notes applications in military and industrial settings. The techniques address a wide range of goals, from enhancing classroom learning to improving creativity and motor skills.

Title Atheism Is False Richard Dawkins and the Improbability of God Delusion
Author David Reuben Stone
Publisher Lulu.com
Release Date 2007-08-01
Category Religion
Total Pages 268
ISBN 9781430312307
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

David Reuben Stone presents a modern defense of the existence of God. Two new arguments are presented: The Argument From The Laws Of Physics, and the Fine-Tuning Argument. The atheism of Richard Dawkins is refuted in great detail, as well as writings of the following atheistic authors: Quentin Smith, Michael Martin, William Rowe, Victor Stenger, Theodore Drange, J.L. Schellenberg, Nicholas Everitt, Michael Ikeda, Bill Jefferys, Theodore Schick Jr., Wesley C. Salmon, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Victor Cosculluela, Thomas Metcalf, and Bruce and Frances Martin. The defenses of atheism by these leading thinkers now stand thoroughly critiqued and in need of substantial revision. A must read for anyone interested in the existence of God. The defense of Hugh Ross's fine-tuning arguments against objections raised by Ikeda and Jefferys is, alone, worth the price of this book! David Reuben Stone is president and founder of Atheism Is False Ministries: www.atheismisfalse.com

Title Information Generation
Author David Hand
Publisher Oneworld Publications Limited
Release Date 2007
Category Computers
Total Pages 246
ISBN UOM:39015066875439
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Explores the meaning and power of data as well as the history of data collection and interpretation, evaluating how information gathering practices in the fields of mathematics, science, and statistics enable people to safeguard and extend systems of knowledge.

Title The Promise of Artificial Intelligence
Author Brian Cantwell Smith
Publisher MIT Press
Release Date 2019-10-08
Category Computers
Total Pages 184
ISBN 9780262355216
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

An argument that—despite dramatic advances in the field—artificial intelligence is nowhere near developing systems that are genuinely intelligent. In this provocative book, Brian Cantwell Smith argues that artificial intelligence is nowhere near developing systems that are genuinely intelligent. Second wave AI, machine learning, even visions of third-wave AI: none will lead to human-level intelligence and judgment, which have been honed over millennia. Recent advances in AI may be of epochal significance, but human intelligence is of a different order than even the most powerful calculative ability enabled by new computational capacities. Smith calls this AI ability “reckoning,” and argues that it does not lead to full human judgment—dispassionate, deliberative thought grounded in ethical commitment and responsible action. Taking judgment as the ultimate goal of intelligence, Smith examines the history of AI from its first-wave origins (“good old-fashioned AI,” or GOFAI) to such celebrated second-wave approaches as machine learning, paying particular attention to recent advances that have led to excitement, anxiety, and debate. He considers each AI technology's underlying assumptions, the conceptions of intelligence targeted at each stage, and the successes achieved so far. Smith unpacks the notion of intelligence itself—what sort humans have, and what sort AI aims at. Smith worries that, impressed by AI's reckoning prowess, we will shift our expectations of human intelligence. What we should do, he argues, is learn to use AI for the reckoning tasks at which it excels while we strengthen our commitment to judgment, ethics, and the world.

Title The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science
Author Jay Cordes
Publisher Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date 2019-07-08
Category
Total Pages 272
ISBN 9780198844396
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Data science has never had more influence on the world. Large companies are now seeing the benefit of employing data scientists to interpret the vast amounts of data that now exists. However, the field is so new and is evolving so rapidly that the analysis produced can be haphazard at best. The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science shows us real-world examples of what can go wrong. Written to be an entertaining read, this invaluable guide investigates the all too common mistakes of data scientists - who can be plagued by lazy thinking, whims, hunches, and prejudices - and indicates how they have been at the root of many disasters, including the Great Recession. Gary Smith and Jay Cordes emphasise how scientific rigor and critical thinking skills are indispensable in this age of Big Data, as machines often find meaningless patterns that can lead to dangerous false conclusions. The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science is loaded with entertaining tales of both successful and misguided approaches to interpreting data, both grand successes and epic failures. These cautionary tales will not only help data scientists be more effective, but also help the public distinguish between good and bad data science.

Title Bully for Brontosaurus Reflections in Natural History
Author Stephen Jay Gould
Publisher W. W. Norton & Company
Release Date 2010-11-29
Category Science
Total Pages 544
ISBN 9780393340822
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

"Provocative and delightfully discursive essays on natural history. . . . Gould is the Stan Musial of essay writing. He can work himself into a corkscrew of ideas and improbable allusions paragraph after paragraph and then, uncoiling, hit it with such power that his fans know they are experiencing the game of essay writing at its best."--John Noble Wilford, New York Times Book Review

Chancing It by Robert Matthews

Title Chancing It
Author Robert Matthews
Publisher Simon and Schuster
Release Date 2017-09-19
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 304
ISBN 9781510723818
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Make your own luck by understanding probability Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance?only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life. In Chancing It, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how to understand the laws of probability and use them to your advantage. He gives you access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed and explains how to use them to guide your judgments and decisions. By the end of the book, you will know: How to understand and even predict coincidences When an insurance policy is worth having Why “expert” predictions are often misleading How to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney When it makes sense to place a bet on anything from sports to stock markets A groundbreaking introduction to the power of probability, Chancing It will sharpen your decision-making and maximize your luck.

Title Should You Judge This Book By Its Cover
Author Julian Baggini
Publisher Granta Publications
Release Date 2009-09-03
Category Philosophy
Total Pages 252
ISBN 9781847081568
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

A philosopher takes a second look at sayings, proverbs, and bits of homespun wisdom: “Every society needs its guardian of good sense: Baggini is ours.” —The Financial Times These short, stimulating, and entertaining capsules of philosophy delve into the familiar words that live in our consciousness yet are rarely examined. Should you really do as the Romans do when in Rome and practice what you preach? Is the grass always in fact greener on the other side of the fence, and is there ever smoke without fire? Is beauty always in the eye of the beholder and is it actually better to be safe than sorry? From the popular author of The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, cofounder of The Philosophers’ Magazine, and academic director of the Royal Institute of Philosophy, this is a witty, deeply thought-provoking reminder that we should never stop asking questions.

Title Calculating Catastrophe
Author G. Woo
Publisher World Scientific
Release Date 2011
Category Catastrophes (Mathematics)
Total Pages 368
ISBN 9781848167407
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets. The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.

Just Six Numbers by Martin Rees

Title Just Six Numbers
Author Martin Rees
Publisher Basic Books
Release Date 2008-08-04
Category Science
Total Pages 208
ISBN 9780786723584
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

DivThe genesis of the universe elegantly explained in a simple theory based on just six numbers by one of the world's most renowned astrophysicists/div

Title The God Delusion 10th Anniversary Edition
Author Richard Dawkins
Publisher Random House
Release Date 2016-05-19
Category
Total Pages 496
ISBN 9781784161934
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

The God Delusion caused a sensation when it was published in 2006. Within weeks it became the most hotly debated topic, with Dawkins himself branded as either saint or sinner for presenting his hard-hitting, impassioned rebuttal of religion of all types. His argument could hardly be more topical. While Europe is becoming increasingly secularized, the rise of religious fundamentalism, whether in the Middle East or Middle America, is dramatically and dangerously dividing opinion around the world. In America, and elsewhere, a vigorous dispute between 'intelligent design' and Darwinism is seriously undermining and restricting the teaching of science. In many countries religious dogma from medieval times still serves to abuse basic human rights such as women's and gay rights. And all from a belief in a God whose existence lacks evidence of any kind. Dawkins attacks God in all his forms. He eviscerates the major arguments for religion and demonstrates the supreme improbability of a supreme being. He shows how religion fuels war, foments bigotry and abuses children. The God Delusion is a brilliantly argued, fascinating polemic that will be required reading for anyone interested in this most emotional and important subject.